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day 20, who knows where money goes


October 26, 2008, 10:37 am
The mother of all currency crises

I invented currency crises. No, really — not the thing itself, of course, but I did publish the first paper in the modern academic literature on the subject, back in 1979. And as I like to say, business has been good ever since.

But I never anticipated anything like what’s happening now.

I’ve been reading reports from Stephen Jen, a former student of mine who’s now the chief currency strategist at Morgan Stanley. He points out that since the fall of Lehman, we’ve been seeing clear signs of currency crises throughout the world of emerging markets, including Eastern Europe. This time, it’s not an Asian crisis or a Latin American crisis, it’s a global crisis. He adds,

So far,the US financial sector has been the epicentre of the global crisis. I fear that a hard landing in EM assets and economies will become the second epicentre in the coming months, with very damaging feedback effects on the developed world.

Right now I feel like the guy who was told, “Cheer up — things could be worse!” So he cheered up, and sure enough, things got worse.
モルガン・スタンレーの通貨分析主任(安易な訳です) で、クルーグマンの教え子だというStephen Jen 氏の見通しは、厳しいものです。来月以後、ヨーロッパ市場における資産価格と経済のハードランディングが起こる可能性なんて信じたくないのですが。



Tax churches, tax businesses owned by churces!!! とFZは、言っていました。繰り返し、繰り返し。

Duane Allman Anthology にCowboy というデュオが登場します。デュエンのドブロが印象的な曲です。
このカウボーイの片割れが、Scott Boyer です。現在、当時のThe Decoys というバンドで昔懐かしい顔ぶれと一緒にやっています。


このサイトで、スコット・ボイヤー、Steve Young などの近況を知ることができます。ボイヤーというと35年程前に当時の太洋ホエールズで三塁手だったクリート・ボイヤーという元メジャー・リーガーを思い出します。彼のプレーは、生で見ましたが、大したものだと思いました。

ニュー・オーリンズは、フランス系と簡単に片付けるわけにも行かないようですね。いわゆるアメリカ南部の範疇どころかアメリカそのものの中では際立って異質な土地柄であるようです。Dr. John のことも暇をみつけてきちんと調べてみないといけないかなと。

Christian Rock のページを見ると70年代初め、アメリカに渡って神がかりになってしまった、Peter Green と Jeremy Spencer というOriginal Fleetwood Mac の二人のギタリストの話が出てくるので、驚くというべきか何というか。



Does the IRS Have a Check Waiting for You?
For Immediate Release Oct 24, 2008
For Further Information, Contact:
Peter J. Sepp, Natasha Altamirano, (703) 683-5700

Database at www.ntu.org Helps Find Tax Refunds Fastest

(Alexandria, VA) -- Budget-conscious consumers who are trying to stretch their dollars may have some good news waiting for them: more than 380,000 Americans are due a total of $266 million in unclaimed tax refunds or stimulus checks, and an online database from the National Taxpayers Union (NTU) can help people locate their money more easily than the IRS's version. This is the eighth year NTU and its research affiliate's publication Tax Savings Report have sponsored the database, available as a public service at www.ntu.org.

"These days many people are trying to make their money go further, so now more than ever it's important to check for tax overpayments they may have coming" said NTU Vice President for Policy and Communications Pete Sepp. "Our Tax Refund Finder at www.ntu.org is a quick and easy way to see if the IRS owes you money."

Each year, thousands of income tax refund checks are returned to the IRS as undeliverable because the taxpayer has moved, changed names, or simply because the check has an incomplete or improper address. Bucking a recent trend, the number of undelivered refunds (excluding stimulus checks) for tax year 2007 (more than 104,000) dropped 9.6 percent versus the year before, while the dollar amount ($103 million) went down 6.3 percent.
アメリカは年末調整がないので、各自が確定申告して基本的に税額還付を受けるわけですが、National Taxpayer Union のHPから、還付の実態についての情報です。

IRS Seeks to Return $266 Million in Undeliverable Refunds And Economic Stimulus Payments to Taxpayers

IR-2008-123, Oct. 23, 2008

WASHINGTON — The Internal Revenue Service is looking for taxpayers who are missing more than 279,000 economic stimulus checks totaling about $163 million and more than 104,000 regular refund checks totaling about $103 million that were returned by the U.S. Postal Service due to mailing address errors.
日本でも年末調整制度の中で、払戻し可能な税額控除(Refundable Tax Credit)の導入が検討されているようですが、単純に番号をつければよいということではなさそうですね。

昨日の日経の広告で見つけたのですが、森信 茂樹編著「給付つき税額控除―日本型児童税額控除の提言」(中央経済社)というのは、まさしくその線を狙っているのでしょう。未読なので。
by nk24mdwst | 2008-10-27 10:39 | その他

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